October has become a defining month for Argentine crops. The long-awaited rains allowed the soil moisture profile to be restored in key regions, although more millimeters are still needed in the west of Buenos Aires and north-central Cordoba. This, combined with the largest planted area in six years, with 17.4 million hectares, points to a projected soybean production of 50 million tons (Mt), two and a half times that of the previous season.
Considering the carry-over between seasons and the forecasted imports, the total soybean supply in Argentina is estimated at 58 Mt, in line with the average of the last ten seasons and 54% more than in 2022/23. With this, the oil industry’s processing can be expected to grow to 39 Mt, an increase of close to 50% with respect to the previous season.
In Argentina, 30% of the dollars coming in from exports come from the agricultural complex. That is why the reactivation of this key industry for Argentine foreign trade is expected. For the current season, net exports of the soybean complex are estimated at only USD 8 billion, the lowest value in almost 20 years, since the 2003/04 season. Meanwhile, for the new 2023/24 season and as a result of the production recomposition, net exports of soybeans and by-products are expected to bring in USD 18 billion, USD 10 billion more than last season and above the average of the last 5 years, although still below the 2020/21 and 2021/22 marks.
November 14, 2023/ Rosario Stock Exchange/ Argentina.